Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.072616 1.251577 1.450788 1.688949 1.965945 2.277984 2.656275
2024-12-29 0.829110 1.080024 1.390830 1.804020 2.339046 3.008783 3.911655
2025-01-05 0.640979 0.902619 1.252146 1.753024 2.452657 3.396016 4.766580
2025-01-12 0.513834 0.771000 1.136337 1.692846 2.519592 3.703701 5.531842
2025-01-19 0.423848 0.671919 1.043596 1.640495 2.575759 3.986981 6.283188
2025-01-26 0.374025 0.622756 1.013536 1.671408 2.752327 4.460829 7.373773
2025-02-02 0.349832 0.609081 1.034353 1.781666 3.063684 5.177319 8.937307
2025-02-09 0.319263 0.579387 1.023530 1.835679 3.285787 5.771786 10.371595
2025-02-16 0.288676 0.544633 0.998366 1.859547 3.455871 6.294385 11.743299
2025-02-23 0.259237 0.507353 0.963020 1.858803 3.578909 6.744632 13.035969
2025-03-02 0.231923 0.469992 0.922151 1.841213 3.666159 7.136354 14.263377
2025-03-09 0.212175 0.444480 0.900034 1.855893 3.815386 7.658969 15.803622
2025-03-16 0.185670 0.402306 0.841173 1.792250 3.806124 7.882954 16.800622
2025-03-23 0.180241 0.403486 0.870166 1.913562 4.193067 8.950183 19.679607
2025-03-30 0.159619 0.368870 0.819902 1.859461 4.200853 9.234135 20.930387
2025-04-06 0.140921 0.335828 0.768551 1.795650 4.178041 9.448063 22.052266
2025-04-13 0.125224 0.307425 0.723675 1.740138 4.165838 9.681964 23.246889
2025-04-20 0.117391 0.296545 0.717226 1.772918 4.361912 10.407504 25.676541
2025-04-27 0.115504 0.299906 0.744495 1.889830 4.773297 11.680168 29.577507
2025-05-04 0.110037 0.293499 0.747396 1.947103 5.045909 12.655670 32.874791
2025-05-11 0.103260 0.282750 0.738164 1.972411 5.241218 13.465742 35.859071
2025-05-18 0.095801 0.269132 0.719864 1.971623 5.368651 14.120370 38.523393
2025-05-25 0.088214 0.254113 0.696024 1.952972 5.446440 14.657223 40.945402